Увод
Mostdecision-makingtheoriesarenormative,thatis,decision-makingtheoriesassumeanidealdecision-makerwithcompleteinformation,achievableprecisioncalculations,andcompleterationality.Thedecisiontoreachtheoptimal(inreality,someso-called"best"scenariosarenotthemaximum,andtheoptimalmayalsobecontainedinaspecificorapproximatemaximum).Thepracticalapplicationofthisnormativemodel(howpeopleshouldmakedecisions)iscalleddecisionanalysis,anditsgoalistohelppeoplemakefurthergooddecision-makingtoolsandmethodology.Decisionsupportsystemisasystematicandcomprehensivesoftwaretooldevelopedinthisway.Becausepeople'susualbehaviorsarenotconsistentwithaxioms,theyoftenviolatetheiroptimality.Relatedresearchonthisphenomenoniscalledadescriptivediscipline.Thisdescriptivemodelattemptstodescribehowpeopledoinpractice.Sincenormativeandoptimaldecisionsusuallytesthypothesesthatviolatepeople'sactualactions,normativemodelsanddescriptivemodelsareassociated.Allowingforfurthertestingofdecisionsthatoccurinpracticemayrelaxtheconstraintsofcompleteinformation,rationality,andothermethodsinthenormativemodel.Inrecentdecades,moreandmoreresearchershavebecomeinterestedintheso-called"behavioraldecisiontheory".Thiskindofresearchhascontributedtothere-evaluationoftherequirementsofrationaldecisiontheory.
Степс
Decisionanalysisisgenerallydividedintofoursteps:(1)formingadecisionproblem,includingproposingplansanddetermininggoals;(2)judgingthenaturalstateanditsprobability;(3)Drawupmultiplefeasibleschemes;(4)Evaluateschemesandmakechoices.Commonlyuseddecisionanalysistechniquesare:decisionanalysisundercertainconditions,decisionanalysisunderriskconditions,anddecisionanalysisunderuncertainconditions.
(1)Decisionanalysisundercertaincircumstances.Themaincharacteristicsofdeterministicdecision-makingproblemsareinfouraspects:oneisthatthereisonlyonestate,theotheristhatthereisacleargoalthatthedecision-makerhopestoachieve,thethirdisthattherearetwoormoreoptionsforthedecision-makertochoose,andthefourthisthatThebenefitvalueofthedifferentschemesinthisstateisclear.Deterministicdecision-makinganalysistechniquesincludetheuseofdifferentialmethodstofindthemaximumvalueandtheuseofmathematicalprogramming.
(2)Decisionanalysisinriskysituations.Thistypeofdecision-makingproblemisdifferentfromdeterministicdecision-makingonlyinthefirstfeature:inthecaseofrisk,therearemorethanonepossiblefuturestates,andwhichstatewillappearcannotbedeterminedinadvance,onlythepossibilityofvariousstatesappearingThesize(suchasprobability,frequency,ratioorweight,etc.).Commonlyusedrisk-baseddecisionanalysistechniquesincludeexpectedvaluemethodanddecisiontreemethod.Theexpectedvaluemethodistodecidethechoiceofeachplanbasedontheprobabilityaveragevalueofeachfeasibleplanineachnaturalstate.Decisiontreemethodisconducivetodecision-makerstovisualizedecision-makingproblems.Variousalternatives,possiblestates,possibilitiesandconsequencescanbesimplydrawnonamapforcalculation,researchandAnalysiscanbesupplementedandrevisedatanytime.
(3)Decisionanalysisunderuncertainty.Ifthereismorethanonestate,andtheprobabilityofeachstateisunknown,itiscalledanuncertaindecision.Commonlyusedmethodsofdecisionanalysisare:a.Optimisticcriteria.Themoreoptimisticdecisionmakersarewillingtofightforallopportunitiestogetthebestresults.Thedecision-makingstepistoselectamaximumprofitvaluefromeachscheme,andthenselectamaximumvaluefromthesemaximumprofitvalues,andtheschemecorrespondingtothemaximumvalueistheselectedscheme.b.Pessimisticcriteria.Themorepessimisticdecisionmakersarealwayscautiousandconsidertheworstresults.Thedecision-makingstepistofirstselectaminimumprofitvaluefromeachplan,andthenselectamaximumprofitvaluefromtheseminimumincomevalues,andthecorrespondingplanistheoptimalplan.Thisistofindamostadvantageoussolutioninthemostunfavorablesituations.c.Equalpossibilitycriterion.Decisionmakershavenoknowledgeofstatusinformation,sotreatthemequallyandassumethattheyareequallylikelytoappear.Thus,decisionscanbemadeinaccordancewiththemethodofrisk-basedsituations.
Карактеристике
Decisionanalysisindeterministicsituations.Themaincharacteristicsofdeterministicdecision-makingproblemshavefouraspects:oneisthatthereisonlyonestate,andtheotheristhatthereisacleargoalthatthedecisionmakerhopestoachieve.Thethirdisthattherearetwoormoreoptionsfordecision-makerstochoosefrom,andthefourthisthattheprofitvalueofthedifferentoptionsinthisstateisclear.Deterministicdecision-makinganalysistechniquesincludetheuseofdifferentialmethodstofindthemaximumvalueandtheuseofmathematicalprogramming.
Компоненте
Decisionanalysisisacomprehensivedisciplinecloselyrelatedtoeconomics,mathematics,psychologyandorganizationalbehavior.Itsresearchobjectisdecision-making,anditsresearchpurposeistohelppeopleimprovethequalityofdecision-makingandreducethetimeandcostofdecision-making.Therefore,decisionanalysisisacreativemanagementtechnique.Decisionanalysisincludestheprocessesofdiscoveringproblems,determininggoals,determiningevaluationcriteria,planformulation,planselection,andplanimplementation.Decisionanalysisusuallyhasthefollowingelements:(1)Decision-makingsubject
Decisionsaremadebypeople,andpeoplearethesubjectofdecision-making.Intheprocessofdecisionanalysis,thedecision-makingbodywhoonlyundertakestaskssuchasraisingquestionsoranalyzingandevaluatingtheplaniscalledthe"analyst",whileintheprocessofdecision-makinganalysis,thedecision-makingbodythatcanmakethefinaldecisioniscalledthe"leader".
(2) Циљеви одлуке
Thedecisionmusthaveatleastonedesiredgoal.Decision-makingiscarriedoutaroundthegoal.Thebeginningofdecision-makingistodeterminethegoal,andtheendistoachievethegoal.Thedecision-makinggoalnotonlyreflectsthesubjectivewillofthedecision-makingsubject,butalsoreflectstheobjectivefacts.Withoutagoal,nodecisioncanbemade.
(3) План одлуке
Thedecisionmusthaveatleasttwofeasibleplanstochoosefrom.Therearetwotypesofschemes:
Theclearschemehasalimitednumberofspecificspecificschemes;
Theunclearschemeonlyexplainsthepossibleconstraintsofthescheme,thenumberofschemesmaybelimited,andPossiblyunlimited.
(4) Крај
Завршетак се такође назива природним стањем. Након имплементације сваког плана, може доћи до једног или више могућих исхода.
(5)Корисност
Theevaluationofthevalueofeachoutcomeofeachplaniscalledutility.Evaluatetheprosandconsoftheprogramsaccordingtotheutilityvalueofeachprogram.