Epävarma päätös

Konsepti

Adecisionmadewhentheprobabilityofthestateofthesystem’sactionplancannotbeestimated.Thebasicmethodofuncertaindecision-makingistofirstusetheutilityvaluetoexpressvariouspossibleconsequences,constructapaymenttable,andthenusecertainevaluationcriteriatoevaluatetheprosandconsofeachplan,soastoselectthebestplan.Iftherearenactionplans(a₁,a₂,....,a_n)tochoosefrom,theremaybemstates(θ₁,θ₂,...,θ_m),programɑ_iisinstateθ_jTheconsequencethatappearsisexpressedbytheutilityvalue,denotedasC_ij=C(a_i,θ_j),youcanGetthestructurematrixtable,alsocalledthepaymenttable(seetable).Accordingtothepaymenttable,differentcriteriacanbeusedtoevaluatetheprosandconsoftheplan,soastoselectthebestactionplan(oroptimalstrategy).CommonlyusedcriteriaareLaplacecriterion,Waldcriterion,Hevizcriterion,hybridcriterionandSavoycriterion.

Kriteerit ja valintamenetelmä

Equalpossibility-menetelmä

AlsocalledLaplacedecisioncriterion.Usingthismethod,itisassumedthattheprobabilityofanyoccurrenceinthenaturalstateisthesame.Thechoiceoftheplaniscarriedoutbycomparingtheaverageprofitandlossofeachplan.Underthegoalofprofitmaximization,theplanwiththelargestaverageprofitisselected.,Underthecostminimizationgoal,choosethesolutionwiththesmallestaveragecost.

Konservatiivinen menetelmä

AlsocalledWald'sdecisioncriterion,thecriterionofgettingbiggerfromsmall.Decisionmakersdonotknowtheprobabilityofanyofthevariousnaturalstates.Thegoalofdecision-makingistoavoidtheworstresultsandstrivetominimizerisks.Whenusingconservativemethodstomakedecisions,thefirstthingtodoistodeterminetheresultsandtrytominimizetherisk.Whenusingtheconservativemethodtomakeadecision,firstdeterminetheminimumreturnvalueofeachalternativeplan,andthenselectamaximumvaluefromtheminimumreturnvalueoftheseplans,andtheplancorrespondingtothemaximumvalueistheplanselectedbythedecision.

Vaarallinen menetelmä

AlsoknownasHeavis'decision-makingcriterion,thecriterionofgettingbiggerfrombigger.Thedecisionmakerdoesnotknowtheprobabilityofanyofthevariousnaturalstates.Thegoalofdecision-makingistochoosethebestnaturalstatetoensurethegreatestpossibleprofit.Theapplicationoftherisk-takingmethodindecision-makingis:first,determinethemaximumprofitvalueofeachalternative;then,selectamaximumvaluefromthemaximumprofitoftheseoptions,andthealternativesolutioncorrespondingtothemaximumvalueisItisadecision-makingoption.Sincedecision-makingaccordingtothiscriterioncanhavethelargestloss,itiscalledthecriterionofriskyspeculation.

Optimismimenetelmä

Alsoknownasthedecliningdecisionmethod,thedecisionmakerdeterminesanoptimismcoefficientε(0.5,1),usestheoptimismcoefficienttocalculatetheoptimisticexpectedvalueofeachplan,andselectstheexpectedvalueThebiggestscheme.

Vähimmäis- ja maksimivalituusarvomenetelmä

AlsoknownastheSavannahdecisionaccuracyrule,thedecisionmakerdoesnotknowtheprobabilityofanyofthevariousnaturalstates.ThegoalofthedecisionistoensuretoavoidLargerchanceloss.Whenusingtheminimumandmaximumregretvaluemethod,firsttransformthedecisionmatrixfromaprofitmatrixtoanopportunitylossmatrix;thendeterminethemaximumopportunitylossofeachalternative;again,chooseaminimumvalueamongthemaximumopportunitylossoftheseoptions,Thealternativesolutioncorrespondingtotheminimumvalueisthedecision-makingoption.